Nächste Seite: INTRODUCTION
Probabilistic Traffic Flow Breakdown In Stochastic Car
Following Models
Dominic Jost
Dept.Computer Science, ETH Zürich, CH-8092 Zürich, Switzerland
Telephone: +41 1 632 2754
Fax: +41 1 632 1374
E-mail: djost@student.ethz.ch
Kai Nagel
Dept.Computer Science, ETH Zürich, CH-8092 Zürich, Switzerland
Telephone: +41 1 632 2754
Fax: +41 1 632 1374
E-mail: nagel@inf.ethz.ch
Submission date: Nov 15, 2002
Corresponding author: Kai Nagel
Number of words: 7500
Zusammenfassung:
There is discussion if traffic displays multiple phases (e.g.laminar, jammed, synchronized) or not. This paper presents
computational evidence that a stochastic car following model, by
changing one of its parameters, can be moved from having two phases
(laminar and jammed) to having only one phase. Models with two phases
show three states: two being homogeneous states corresponding to each
phase, and a third state which consists of a mix between the two
phases (phase coexistence).
Although the gas-liquid analogy to traffic models has been widely
discussed, no traffic-related model ever displayed a completely
understood stochastic version of that transition. Having a
stochastic model is important to understand the potentially
probabilistic nature of the transition. Most importantly, if indeed
2-phase models describe certain aspects correctly, then this leads to
predictions for breakdown probabilities. Alternatively, if 1-phase
models describe these aspects better, then there is no breakdown.
Interestingly, such 1-phase models can still allow for jam formation
on small scales, which may give the impression of having a 2-phase
dynamics.
Nächste Seite: INTRODUCTION
Kai Nagel
2002-11-16